RX® - Review & Outlook - Oct. 2025
Hi there,
📈 If September was the calm after the storm, then October starts with a cautious pulse: After months of hesitant trading, the market seems to have found its footing - barely, but visibly. Volumes are ticking up, volatility eased, and the RX®metrics are back within the familiar 120-170 band (see chart below). Not a breakout, but at least a heartbeat.
🏗️ For the steel sector, it’s been a balancing act: Production remains subdued - German output still roughly -3 % YoY - while costs stay heavy: high energy prices, CO₂ costs, and logistic hiccups continue to shape the curve. Many producers have learned to play defense, scaling down output instead of chasing thin margins.
🌍 Politics is writing its own market chart: The EU is weighing tighter import safeguards, the US just doubled steel tariffs to 50 %, and Europe’s largest mills are re-evaluating “green steel” plans as hydrogen costs bite. What started as policy noise is now turning into real-world friction - fewer cheap imports, tighter spreads, and a shifting trade balance.
💡 The result? A mixed but intriguing picture: Stabilizing spot prices, renewed buyer curiosity, and a cautious return of liquidity. Yet, uncertainty still lingers like a shadow - from geopolitics to energy debates.
🔭 Outlook: October is shaping up as a sideways month with selective upside. The base case? Cautious optimism - in a market still learning to trust itself again.
